GCSE Prospects 2026: Case for Reform? CEER, August 2026.

The 2026 results are likely to be similar to those in the two previous years, because the subject mix is little changed and there are statistical controls. The entries and grades awarded raise a number of important questions including: have GCSEs had their day; why are girls so far ahead; are compulsory resits doing any good; what’s behind Northern Ireland’s success; and was it right to abandon the EBacc? The Government is urged to address these questions in its deliberations on the future of Key Stage 4.

Click here to download the PDF.

A-Level Prospects 2026: Swing to the Quantitative CEER, August 2026.

Top grades have not settled back to where they were in 2019, but are edging upwards. The reason would appear to be the swing to quantitative subjects which are the highest awarders of A* grades. Boys are more likely to take and do better in these subjects so it could also explain the widening gap at A* between the sexes. If this explanation is correct, in 2026 top grades will go up and boys will nudge further ahead at A*, since provisional entries show that the quantitative subjects are set to rise again.

Click here to download the PDF.

GCSE Prospects 2025: Back to Normal? CEER, August 2025.

The 2025 results are likely to continue the ‘new normal’, with more top grades than pre-Covid. In 2024, there were an extra 61,900. Girls dominated, with boys ahead in just five, all quantitative, of the 47 subject areas. Top grades ranged from over 70% to zero. The lowest scorers were the former GNVQs leaving T-levels without a platform to build on. English and Maths were also low scorers mainly due to compulsory re-sits. Of national concern should be that 10% of 16-year-olds were not in Year 11, many just not turning up.

Click here to download the PDF.

A-Level Prospects 2025: Stable Once More? CEER, August 2025.

In 2024 A-level results rose even though the stated policy was for them to return to pre-pandemic levels. There were substantial increases in top grades of 14,200 A*s and 21,300 A*/As. The likely reasons for the increase are set to continue. But, ultimately, the regulators can set the grades where they want them. It could well be, however, that last years’ results were the beginning of a new norm, with more top grades than before.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Conservative Effect 2010-2024: 14 Wasted Years? CUP, June 2024.

In education, the years were far from wasted. The ministers were well-prepared and they rounded off the reforms of successive governments since the mid-1980s. Not everything worked. But the core aim was to make England’s schools world class and they did rise up the international league tables. After the original ministers left, however, there was considerable churn in personnel and momentum was lost.

The Good Teacher Training Guide 2017, CEER, April 2017.

Cambridge University once again emerges as pre-eminent. The top ten is otherwise dominated by school-based training providers. Shortages are a continuing concern, but the higher take-up of teaching posts by the school-trained is some comfort.

Click here to download the PDF.

Where Next for Apprenticeships 2016, CIPD, August 2016.

In a policy report of the Chartered Institute for Personnel Development edited by Tess Lanning, Alan Smithers argues that the introduction of national apprenticeship qualifications would turn the government’s hopes for the new apprenticeships into reality.

Click here to download the PDF.

Social Disadvantage and Widening Access to Universities, Buckingham: CEER, November 2015.

It has become a political imperative to get more students from disadvantaged backgrounds into university. The challenge is that this goes against the grain of the evidence on student performance. Females, those from higher income backgrounds, those who are white, and those from more affluent neighbourhoods gain proportionally more good degrees. Minority ethnic pupils are both more likely to be admitted to university and do less well there. Universities face a dilemma. If they stick to offering places on merit the Government’s aims are unlikely to be realised, but if they comply then they will struggle to keep up their degree standards.

Click here to download the PDF.

HEFCE’s Blunder, Buckingham: CEER, November 2015.

HEFCE made a crucial error in its latest report on degree outcomes. In Issues Paper 2015/21 it said that 82 per cent of graduates getting firsts or upper-seconds in 2013-14 came from state schools compared with 73 per cent from independent schools. HEFCE’s Blunder reveals that, in fact, the reverse was the case. Although HEFCE has changed some of the figures in the report itself, it has not publicly corrected the misinformation. It also still claims that students from state school were four percentage points ahead rather than nine points behind.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Coalition Effect, 2010-15 edited by Anthony Seldon and Mike Finn, Cambridge University Press, pages 257-289, March 2015.

The government rushed to unsettling reforms of education, but was given an ‘easy ride’ by Labour. Michael Gove’s departure left a lot of unfinished business on academies, qualifications, apprenticeships and fair funding. A new Conservative-led government is very likely to see these through. But what Labour would do is far from clear since so far it has offered only bits and pieces.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Ins and Outs of Selective Secondary Schools, London: Civitas, pages 194-205, March 2015.

There has to be selection in education since people differ greatly in their talents, interests and aspirations. Fifteen would be a good age allowing for an array of interconnected three-year pathways across the academic and occupational.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Science and Mathematics Teaching Workforce, London: The Royal Society, June 2014.

Teacher provision in the physical sciences and mathematics has been a long-standing and deep-seated problem in many countries. As part of its Vision for Science and Mathematics Education project, The Royal Society commissioned CEER to review provision in England, the UK, and worldwide.

Click here to download the PDF.

Confusion in the Ranks, London: The Sutton Trust, February 2013.

Countries are increasingly comparing themselves in education league tables. But how is it that England can be 27th and sixth at the same time? Confusion in the Ranks explains.

Click here to download the PDF.

14-18 A New Vision for Secondary Education, London: Bloomsbury, January 2013.

Education in England lacks a clear shape. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the final years of secondary schooling. Raising the participation age to 18 creates the opportunity to design an array of academic, practical, creative and occupational pathways to take people forward to university, training, employment and future lives.

Choice And Selection In School Admissions: The Experience of Other Countries, London: The Sutton Trust, November 2010.

Proposes a radical solution to bring England into line with best international practice: undertake national examinations at age 14, instead of age 16, and offer pupils an array of distinct and credible educational routes thereafter.

Click here to download the PDF.

Educating the Highly Able, London: The Sutton Trust, July 2012.

England lags far behind other countries in educating the brightest. A first step would be to hold schools to account for the progress of the highly able. Current measures are pitched at the lowest and middling performers. Other countries bring together the brightest. The raising of the participation age provides an opportunity to create an array of pathways post 14 on the model of the university technical colleges.

Click here to download the PDF.

Worlds Apart: Social Variation Among Schools, London: The Sutton Trust, April 2010.

Comprehensive schools in England are highly socially segregated and the main reason for this is their admissions and selection processes rather than their location. The country’s leading comprehensive schools are more socially exclusive than the remaining grammar schools.

Click here to download the PDF.

GCSE Prospects 2026: Case for Reform? CEER, August 2026.

The 2026 results are likely to be similar to those in the two previous years, because the subject mix is little changed and there are statistical controls. The entries and grades awarded raise a number of important questions including: have GCSEs had their day; why are girls so far ahead; are compulsory resits doing any good; what’s behind Northern Ireland’s success; and was it right to abandon the EBacc? The Government is urged to address these questions in its deliberations on the future of Key Stage 4.

Click here to download the PDF.

A-Level Prospects 2026: Swing to the Quantitative CEER, August 2026.

Top grades have not settled back to where they were in 2019, but are edging upwards. The reason would appear to be the swing to quantitative subjects which are the highest awarders of A* grades. Boys are more likely to take and do better in these subjects so it could also explain the widening gap at A* between the sexes. If this explanation is correct, in 2026 top grades will go up and boys will nudge further ahead at A*, since provisional entries show that the quantitative subjects are set to rise again.

Click here to download the PDF.

GCSE Prospects 2025: Back to Normal? CEER, August 2025.

The 2025 results are likely to continue the ‘new normal’, with more top grades than pre-Covid. In 2024, there were an extra 61,900. Girls dominated, with boys ahead in just five, all quantitative, of the 47 subject areas. Top grades ranged from over 70% to zero. The lowest scorers were the former GNVQs leaving T-levels without a platform to build on. English and Maths were also low scorers mainly due to compulsory re-sits. Of national concern should be that 10% of 16-year-olds were not in Year 11, many just not turning up.

Click here to download the PDF.

A-Level Prospects 2025: Stable Once More? CEER, August 2025.

In 2024 A-level results rose even though the stated policy was for them to return to pre-pandemic levels. There were substantial increases in top grades of 14,200 A*s and 21,300 A*/As. The likely reasons for the increase are set to continue. But, ultimately, the regulators can set the grades where they want them. It could well be, however, that last years’ results were the beginning of a new norm, with more top grades than before.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Conservative Effect 2010-2024: 14 Wasted Years? CUP, June 2024.

In education, the years were far from wasted. The ministers were well-prepared and they rounded off the reforms of successive governments since the mid-1980s. Not everything worked. But the core aim was to make England’s schools world class and they did rise up the international league tables. After the original ministers left, however, there was considerable churn in personnel and momentum was lost.

The Good Teacher Training Guide 2017, CEER, April 2017.

Cambridge University once again emerges as pre-eminent. The top ten is otherwise dominated by school-based training providers. Shortages are a continuing concern, but the higher take-up of teaching posts by the school-trained is some comfort.

Click here to download the PDF.

Where Next for Apprenticeships 2016, CIPD, August 2016.

In a policy report of the Chartered Institute for Personnel Development edited by Tess Lanning, Alan Smithers argues that the introduction of national apprenticeship qualifications would turn the government’s hopes for the new apprenticeships into reality.

Click here to download the PDF.

Social Disadvantage and Widening Access to Universities, Buckingham: CEER, November 2015.

It has become a political imperative to get more students from disadvantaged backgrounds into university. The challenge is that this goes against the grain of the evidence on student performance. Females, those from higher income backgrounds, those who are white, and those from more affluent neighbourhoods gain proportionally more good degrees. Minority ethnic pupils are both more likely to be admitted to university and do less well there. Universities face a dilemma. If they stick to offering places on merit the Government’s aims are unlikely to be realised, but if they comply then they will struggle to keep up their degree standards.

Click here to download the PDF.

HEFCE’s Blunder, Buckingham: CEER, November 2015.

HEFCE made a crucial error in its latest report on degree outcomes. In Issues Paper 2015/21 it said that 82 per cent of graduates getting firsts or upper-seconds in 2013-14 came from state schools compared with 73 per cent from independent schools. HEFCE’s Blunder reveals that, in fact, the reverse was the case. Although HEFCE has changed some of the figures in the report itself, it has not publicly corrected the misinformation. It also still claims that students from state school were four percentage points ahead rather than nine points behind.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Coalition Effect, 2010-15 edited by Anthony Seldon and Mike Finn, Cambridge University Press, pages 257-289, March 2015.

The government rushed to unsettling reforms of education, but was given an ‘easy ride’ by Labour. Michael Gove’s departure left a lot of unfinished business on academies, qualifications, apprenticeships and fair funding. A new Conservative-led government is very likely to see these through. But what Labour would do is far from clear since so far it has offered only bits and pieces.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Ins and Outs of Selective Secondary Schools, London: Civitas, pages 194-205, March 2015.

There has to be selection in education since people differ greatly in their talents, interests and aspirations. Fifteen would be a good age allowing for an array of interconnected three-year pathways across the academic and occupational.

Click here to download the PDF.

The Science and Mathematics Teaching Workforce, London: The Royal Society, June 2014.

Teacher provision in the physical sciences and mathematics has been a long-standing and deep-seated problem in many countries. As part of its Vision for Science and Mathematics Education project, The Royal Society commissioned CEER to review provision in England, the UK, and worldwide.

Click here to download the PDF.

Confusion in the Ranks, London: The Sutton Trust, February 2013.

Countries are increasingly comparing themselves in education league tables. But how is it that England can be 27th and sixth at the same time? Confusion in the Ranks explains.

Click here to download the PDF.

14-18 A New Vision for Secondary Education, London: Bloomsbury, January 2013.

Education in England lacks a clear shape. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the final years of secondary schooling. Raising the participation age to 18 creates the opportunity to design an array of academic, practical, creative and occupational pathways to take people forward to university, training, employment and future lives.

Choice And Selection In School Admissions: The Experience of Other Countries, London: The Sutton Trust, November 2010.

Proposes a radical solution to bring England into line with best international practice: undertake national examinations at age 14, instead of age 16, and offer pupils an array of distinct and credible educational routes thereafter.

Click here to download the PDF.

Educating the Highly Able, London: The Sutton Trust, July 2012.

England lags far behind other countries in educating the brightest. A first step would be to hold schools to account for the progress of the highly able. Current measures are pitched at the lowest and middling performers. Other countries bring together the brightest. The raising of the participation age provides an opportunity to create an array of pathways post 14 on the model of the university technical colleges.

Click here to download the PDF.

Worlds Apart: Social Variation Among Schools, London: The Sutton Trust, April 2010.

Comprehensive schools in England are highly socially segregated and the main reason for this is their admissions and selection processes rather than their location. The country’s leading comprehensive schools are more socially exclusive than the remaining grammar schools.

Click here to download the PDF.